Walsall 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Banks's Stadium to face Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Walsall (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall at Banks's Stadium this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 0D 5L from 8 road trips in League Two this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Walsall's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Walsall 61% and Crawley Town 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 50% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.20 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.931 / defence 1.299 | Crawley Town attack 0.782 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.154. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Walsall games / 18 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 34% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Crawley Town 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 78% | Crawley Town 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Banks's Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 34% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Walsall 1.20 / Crawley Town 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.931 / def 1.299 | Crawley Town attack 0.782 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Walsall (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Crawley Town kick off?
Walsall vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at Banks's Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Walsall 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Walsall vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Banks's Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Crawley Town part of?
Walsall vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 34% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Walsall and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.93x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.78x) against Walsall's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
34%
2.94
33%
3.01
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Crawley Town xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Walsall and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Walsall and 1.17 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 6W 6D 6L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 6W 3D 9L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Walsall against 1.17 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 61%.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Crawley Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.50 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Walsall
6
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Walsall have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 75%, Crawley Town 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Walsall) and 38% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Walsall's games and 38% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Walsall's recent games and 38% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at Banks's Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.20 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 34% | Draw 33% | Crawley Town 33%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 50%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.33 PPG, Crawley Town 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.