Crawley Town 0-3 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cambridge United at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Cambridge United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Crawley Town and Cambridge United meet at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Cambridge United have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambridge United are 1.50 PPG clear of Crawley Town over their recent games (2.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Crawley Town 1–3 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Cambridge United 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.946 / defence 1.115 | Cambridge United attack 0.925 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.204. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 30 games and Cambridge United's last 29.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.14 | Draw 3.56 | Cambridge United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).

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