🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Swindon Town (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Swindon Town face Newport County.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Newport County make the trip to County Ground to face Swindon Town in League Two, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Current Form

Swindon Town's overall League Two record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at County Ground, Swindon Town have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Newport County have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in League Two this season, Newport County have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Swindon Town. A 1.00 PPG lead over Newport County (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across 9 previous meetings, Swindon Town are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 0 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Swindon Town winning.

The historical record gives Swindon Town a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Swindon Town — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Newport County — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 56% versus Newport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 59% | Newport County 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.37 xG and Newport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.254 / defence 0.915 | Newport County attack 0.881 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.205. Swindon Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.474 — this is suppressing Swindon Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Swindon Town games / 75 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Swindon Town 68% | Draw 18% | Newport County 14%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Newport County 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Swindon Town 50% | Newport County 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights