🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 0-3 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Cambridge United attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 32% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 40%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambridge United's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.92 PPG, Cambridge United 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights