Colchester 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Colchester face Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Colchester welcome Salford City to Colchester Community Stadium in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Colchester have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Colchester at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Colchester are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Salford City — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Salford City away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Colchester) versus 1.30 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Colchester have won 3, Salford City 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Colchester 3–4 Salford City — a Salford City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Salford City trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 50% versus Salford City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 33% | Salford City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.75 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.287 / defence 0.817 | Salford City attack 1.128 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Colchester carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 1.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Colchester's last 78 games and Salford City's last 78.
Result probabilities: Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 1.90 | Draw 4.24 | Salford City 4.21. Colchester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Colchester's last 10 home games and Salford City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Colchester 40% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: Colchester Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Colchester 1.75 / Salford City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.287 / def 0.817 | Salford City attack 1.128 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Colchester (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Salford City xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colchester vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Colchester vs Salford City kick off?
Colchester vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Colchester Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Colchester 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Colchester vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Salford City part of?
Colchester vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 53% chance of winning, Salford City a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Colchester and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Colchester vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 1.29x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Colchester's last 78 games and Salford City's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.24
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
Salford City xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
24.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colchester vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Colchester and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Colchester and 1.09 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 78 games, going 29W 29D 20L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.55 PPG from 78 outings (34W 19D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.49 PPG, Salford City on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 18W 12D 9L across their last 39 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.51 points per game from their last 39 away games (16W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.40 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colchester
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Colchester vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Colchester and Salford City in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 29W 29D 20L in their last 78 games (1.49 PPG), while Salford City have gone 34W 19D 25L in their last 78 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Salford City away?
Colchester's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.69 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Colchester or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Salford City in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Salford City have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won Salford City 0-3 Colchester.
Colchester's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Colchester
2
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Colchester vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Colchester have won 3, Salford City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 46%, Salford City 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Colchester) and 49% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Colchester keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Colchester have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colchester vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colchester and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Colchester's recent matches and 62% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Colchester and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Colchester's recent games and 49% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Colchester's recent matches and 69% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Colchester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 0-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.75 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Salford City attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 33%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.49 PPG, Salford City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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