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Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Colchester 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Colchester 0-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.75 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Salford City attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 33%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Salford City's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.49 PPG, Salford City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights