Chesterfield 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chesterfield at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chesterfield vs Harrogate Town encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Chesterfield welcome Harrogate Town to SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chesterfield have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Chesterfield have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Harrogate Town stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Harrogate Town away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Chesterfield are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Chesterfield's games and 60% of Harrogate Town's (from Chesterfield's last 10 home games and Harrogate Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chesterfield, 1 for Harrogate Town and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Chesterfield 2–1 Harrogate Town — a Chesterfield win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 56% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 54% | Harrogate Town 39%). Note also that Harrogate Town surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Chesterfield recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.58 xG and Harrogate Town 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.210 / defence 0.936 | Harrogate Town attack 0.677 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 76 games and Harrogate Town's last 77.

Result probabilities: Chesterfield 57% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 1.75 | Draw 3.98 | Harrogate Town 5.63. The model has a clear lean to Chesterfield (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 60% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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