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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Gillingham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Gillingham 1-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.37 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Gillingham attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Gillingham's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.50 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights