Chesterfield 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chesterfield face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chesterfield and Gillingham meet at SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Chesterfield (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chesterfield at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Chesterfield, 2 for Gillingham and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Chesterfield 1–4 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chesterfield — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 57% versus Gillingham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 54% | Gillingham 34%). Note also that Gillingham surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Chesterfield recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.37 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.163 / defence 0.963 | Gillingham attack 0.907 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 77 games and Gillingham's last 76.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.22 | Draw 3.68 | Gillingham 3.59. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chesterfield if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 60% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 33 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Chesterfield 1.37 / Gillingham 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.163 / def 0.963 | Gillingham attack 0.907 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gillingham xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Gillingham kick off?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Chesterfield 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Chesterfield vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Gillingham part of?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 45% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chesterfield and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Chesterfield vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (1.16) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.91x) against Chesterfield's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 77 games and Gillingham's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.68
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
Gillingham xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.02 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chesterfield's recent record stands at 30W 24D 22L from 76 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 25L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Chesterfield against 1.30 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chesterfield have managed 16W 15D 6L from their last 37 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 7W 16D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chesterfield are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Chesterfield (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 30W 24D 22L in their last 76 games (1.50 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Gillingham away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.70 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gillingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Chesterfield and Gillingham, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gillingham won Gillingham 4-1 Chesterfield on 19 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chesterfield have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 1, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 58% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 65%, Gillingham 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chesterfield) and 30% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Gillingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Chesterfield's games and 51% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chesterfield and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chesterfield's recent games and 30% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 54% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Gillingham 1-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.37 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Gillingham attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.50 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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