Cheltenham 1-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Whaddon Road plays host to Cheltenham versus Cambridge United in League Two (matchday 42). Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cheltenham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cheltenham's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambridge United (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cambridge United away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cambridge United are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Cheltenham edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Cheltenham 0–1 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 85 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 55% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 1.110 / defence 1.161 | Cambridge United attack 0.902 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 85 games and Cambridge United's last 40.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.07 | Draw 3.54 | Cambridge United 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 60% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, matchday 42 | Venue: Whaddon Road • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cheltenham 1.08 / Cambridge United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 1.110 / def 1.161 | Cambridge United attack 0.902 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cambridge United xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Cambridge United kick off?
Cheltenham vs Cambridge United kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Whaddon Road.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Cheltenham vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Whaddon Road.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Cambridge United part of?
Cheltenham vs Cambridge United is a League Two fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 33% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cheltenham and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cheltenham vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 1.11x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.90x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 85 games and Cambridge United's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.54
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.30
1.22
Cambridge United xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.22 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 85 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 27W 21D 37L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 29W 24D 32L from 85 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.31 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 41 home games (17W 9D 15L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 11W 12D 18L from their last 41 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cheltenham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.20 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Cheltenham (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Cheltenham vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 27W 21D 37L in their last 85 games (1.20 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 29W 24D 32L in their last 85 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Cambridge United away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.46 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won Cheltenham 0-5 Cambridge United on 7 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Cambridge United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 4, Cambridge United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Cheltenham 1-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Cambridge United?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 54%, Cambridge United 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cheltenham) and 44% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 49% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cheltenham's recent games and 44% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 63% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Whaddon Road, Regular Season - 42, as Cheltenham and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Cambridge United attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.20 PPG, Cambridge United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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