Barrow 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Barrow at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Barrow welcome Crawley Town to SO Legal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Barrow — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Barrow have posted 4W 4D 2L at SO Legal Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Barrow at 1.60 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Barrow, 3 for Crawley Town and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 4–0 with Barrow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Barrow in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 42% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 36% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.779 / defence 0.714 | Crawley Town attack 0.932 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.285. Barrow's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Barrow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Barrow's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Barrow games / 62 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 4.76. Barrow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barrow as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barrow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Barrow 40% | Crawley Town 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SO Legal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Barrow 1.52 / Crawley Town 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.779 / def 0.714 | Crawley Town attack 0.932 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Barrow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Crawley Town xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Crawley Town kick off?
Barrow vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 November 2023 at SO Legal Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Barrow 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Barrow vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at SO Legal Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs Crawley Town part of?
Barrow vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 53% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Barrow and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Barrow 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 3W.
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in?
Barrow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Barrow's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.86
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Barrow xG
Total xG
2.38
0.85
Crawley Town xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Barrow and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Barrow and 0.85 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Barrow have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 24W 15D 23L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 18W 16D 28L from 62 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Barrow have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 3W 9D 18L from 30 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barrow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Crawley Town away?
Barrow's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.73 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Barrow or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Barrow's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Barrow
1
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Barrow have won 3, Crawley Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 40%, Crawley Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Barrow) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 37% of games; Crawley Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Barrow's recent matches and 53% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Barrow's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Barrow edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barrow beat Crawley Town 1-0 at SO Legal Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.52 xG and Crawley Town 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.78 / defence 0.71 against Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 53% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 21%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 36%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barrow win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.