Crawley Town 3-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.60 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Accrington ST 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Accrington ST 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.053 / defence 1.100 | Accrington ST attack 1.015 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.308. Data: 61 Crawley Town games / 16 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Accrington ST 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Accrington ST 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Crawley Town 1.63 / Accrington ST 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.053 / def 1.100 | Accrington ST attack 1.015 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Accrington ST xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Crawley Town 3 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 42% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.05x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (1.01x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 61/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.20
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.09
1.46
Accrington ST xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.46 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 16D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.13 PPG from 61 outings (19W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.13 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 19W 12D 30L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.63 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Accrington ST 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 43% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Accrington ST in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 40% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 43% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Accrington ST 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 1.46 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Accrington ST attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Accrington ST 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Accrington ST 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.