Crawley Town 2-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Harrogate Town meet at Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Crawley Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Harrogate Town's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Harrogate Town's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Harrogate Town and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Crawley Town 3–1 Harrogate Town — a Crawley Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Harrogate Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Harrogate Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.35 xG and Harrogate Town 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.131 / defence 1.089 | Harrogate Town attack 0.922 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.260. Harrogate Town bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Crawley Town's projected output down. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 63 games and Harrogate Town's last 64.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.58 | Draw 3.81 | Harrogate Town 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Crawley Town 1.35 / Harrogate Town 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.131 / def 1.089 | Harrogate Town attack 0.922 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Harrogate Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 39% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.92x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 63 games and Harrogate Town's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.81
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Harrogate Town xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.27 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 16D 29L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Harrogate Town's form line: 18W 18D 27L from 63 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.14 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 32 home games (15W 7D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 11W 7D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 16D 29L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Harrogate Town away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.62 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Crawley Town and Harrogate Town, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Crawley Town have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Harrogate Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 6, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Crawley Town 2-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Harrogate Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Harrogate Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 53% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Harrogate Town in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Harrogate Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 53% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 53% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 66% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Harrogate Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 2-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.35 xG and Harrogate Town 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Harrogate Town attack 0.92 / defence 0.78, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 39% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Harrogate Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.11 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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