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Dominant Notts County run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Accrington ST.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Accrington ST 0-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.81 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Notts County outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Notts County attack 1.29 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 33% | Draw 24% | Notts County 43%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 64%, Notts County 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Notts County's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.19 PPG, Notts County 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights