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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Accrington ST run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Newport County 5-0 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.35 xG and Newport County 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Newport County landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Newport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.26, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 43% | Draw 27% | Newport County 30%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 59%, Newport County 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Accrington ST's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Newport County's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Newport County 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights