🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 43%, yet in-form Newport County provide a compelling counter-argument — this Accrington ST vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Newport County travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Accrington ST's home record at Wham Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all League Two games this season, Newport County have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Newport County have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Newport County are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Newport County and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Newport County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Accrington ST trading profile (81 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Newport County trading profile (81 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 57% versus Newport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 59% | Newport County 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.35 xG and Newport County 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.840 / defence 1.050 | Newport County attack 0.989 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.058. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 81 Accrington ST games / 81 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 43% | Draw 27% | Newport County 30%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Newport County 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Newport County (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Newport County 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights