Wycombe 1-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wycombe at 71% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wycombe face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wycombe host Bradford at Adams Park in League One (matchday 42). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wycombe — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Wycombe's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wycombe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bradford have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Wycombe) versus 1.60 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wycombe, 1 for Bradford and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Wycombe 1–2 Bradford — a Bradford win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wycombe trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 48% versus Bradford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 46% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 2.26 xG and Bradford 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.344 / defence 0.859 | Bradford attack 0.813 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Wycombe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.344 — their 2.26 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Wycombe's last 87 games and Bradford's last 40.
Result probabilities: Wycombe 71% | Draw 18% | Bradford 11%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 1.40 | Draw 5.66 | Bradford 8.99. The model has a clear lean to Wycombe (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wycombe as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wycombe's last 10 home games and Bradford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wycombe 40% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Bradford | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 71% | Draw 18% | Bradford 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Wycombe 2.26 / Bradford 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.344 / def 0.859 | Bradford attack 0.813 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bradford xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wycombe vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Wycombe vs Bradford kick off?
Wycombe vs Bradford kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Bradford?
Wycombe 1 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Wycombe vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Bradford part of?
Wycombe vs Bradford is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 71% chance of winning, Bradford a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wycombe and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Wycombe vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wycombe's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wycombe's last 87 games and Bradford's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.66
11%
8.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Wycombe xG
Total xG
3.02
0.77
Bradford xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
8.99
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
10%
9.57
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
1%
86.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wycombe vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Wycombe and 0.77 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Bradford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wycombe's recent record stands at 39W 24D 23L from 86 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 42W 20D 24L across 86 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.64 PPG, Bradford on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wycombe have managed 23W 10D 9L from their last 42 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 9W 13D 20L across their last 42 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wycombe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Wycombe (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wycombe
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Wycombe vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Wycombe and Bradford in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 39W 24D 23L in their last 86 games (1.64 PPG), while Bradford have gone 42W 20D 24L in their last 86 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Bradford away?
Wycombe's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.88 PPG; Bradford away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bradford in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wycombe
0
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Wycombe vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Bradford?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wycombe have won 0, Bradford have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Wycombe 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 38%, Bradford 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Wycombe) and 50% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Wycombe have failed to score in 26% of games; Bradford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wycombe vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wycombe and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Wycombe's recent matches and 57% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wycombe and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Wycombe's recent games and 50% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Wycombe's recent matches and 74% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Wycombe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Wycombe 1-2 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 2.26 xG and Bradford 0.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wycombe fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.34 / defence 0.86 against Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 87/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 71% | Draw 18% | Bradford 11%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 46%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.64 PPG, Bradford 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 42
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →