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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Wrexham 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Wrexham 2-3 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 0.91 xG and Stevenage 0.52 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage outscored their 0.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Stevenage attack 0.59 / defence 0.64, drawn from 27/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 43% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 24% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 51%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Stevenage's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights