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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Wrexham host Stevenage at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wrexham at STōK Cae Ras this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.

Stevenage — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Wrexham) versus 1.60 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wrexham, 1 for Stevenage and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Wrexham trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Stevenage trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 46% versus Stevenage 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 51% | Stevenage 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 0.91 xG and Stevenage 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.108 / defence 0.747 | Stevenage attack 0.590 / defence 0.641. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.641 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wrexham's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Wrexham games / 71 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wrexham 43% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Stevenage 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 24% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 76% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 24%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.42 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 24% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 40% | Stevenage 10% BTTS from recent games.

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