Wrexham 3-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wrexham and Charlton meet at STōK Cae Ras in League One (matchday 45). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Wrexham's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Charlton have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Charlton have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Wrexham, 0 for Charlton and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Wrexham 2–2 Charlton — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wrexham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 47% versus Charlton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Charlton 51%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Wrexham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.014 / defence 0.831 | Charlton attack 1.137 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.178. Data: built from Wrexham's last 44 games and Charlton's last 90.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.90 | Draw 3.36 | Charlton 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wrexham 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Wrexham 1.09 / Charlton 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.014 / def 0.831 | Charlton attack 1.137 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Charlton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Charlton kick off?
Wrexham vs Charlton kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Charlton?
Wrexham 3 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Wrexham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Charlton part of?
Wrexham vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wrexham and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Wrexham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.14x) against Wrexham's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 44 games and Charlton's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Charlton xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.11 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wrexham come into this having played 90 games, going 51W 21D 18L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.50 PPG from 90 outings (35W 30D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wrexham's home form reads 32W 8D 5L across their last 45 home games, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 45 away games (13W 16D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Wrexham (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Wrexham vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 51W 21D 18L in their last 90 games (1.93 PPG), while Charlton have gone 35W 30D 25L in their last 90 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Charlton away?
Wrexham's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.31 PPG; Charlton away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Charlton in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Wrexham and Charlton, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wrexham have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wrexham won Wrexham 3-0 Charlton on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wrexham have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Charlton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 3, Charlton have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Charlton 0-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Charlton?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 47%, Charlton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wrexham) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Wrexham's recent matches and 56% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wrexham and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wrexham's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Wrexham's recent matches and 62% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Charlton 3-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against Charlton attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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