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Poisson model favours Charlton (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Burton Albion.

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Match Analysis

Charlton host Burton Albion at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Charlton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Charlton have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charlton and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Charlton trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Burton Albion trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 58% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Burton Albion 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.50 xG and Burton Albion 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.217 / defence 0.759 | Burton Albion attack 0.733 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.174. Charlton's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 91 Charlton games / 91 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.

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