🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Northampton at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Northampton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Crawley Town host Northampton at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all League One games this season, Northampton have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in League One this season, Northampton have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Northampton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Northampton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Northampton 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Northampton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Crawley Town trading profile (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Northampton trading profile (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Northampton 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Northampton 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.006 / defence 1.332 | Northampton attack 1.032 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.182. Data: 44 Crawley Town games / 90 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 25% | Northampton 45%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Northampton 2.22. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Northampton 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights