🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burton Albion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Burton Albion 3-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.16 xG and Burton Albion 0.82 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 43% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 26%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 48%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Burton Albion's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights