Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wrexham vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wrexham host Burton Albion at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wrexham's home record at STōK Cae Ras: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Wrexham have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wrexham, 0 for Burton Albion and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Wrexham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wrexham in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 46% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 48% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.16 xG and Burton Albion 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 0.971 / defence 0.845 | Burton Albion attack 0.861 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.121. Data: 40 Wrexham games / 85 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 43% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 26%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Burton Albion 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wrexham 60% | Burton Albion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 43% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Wrexham 1.16 / Burton Albion 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 0.971 / def 0.845 | Burton Albion attack 0.861 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Burton Albion xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Burton Albion kick off?
Wrexham vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Burton Albion?
Wrexham 3 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Wrexham vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Burton Albion part of?
Wrexham vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wrexham and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Burton Albion in?
Wrexham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.21
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Wrexham xG
Total xG
1.97
0.82
Burton Albion xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.82 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wrexham's recent record stands at 49W 19D 17L from 85 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 21W 22D 42L across 85 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 31W 7D 4L from 42 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 10W 13D 19L across 42 trips, a 1.02 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.94 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 49W 19D 17L in their last 85 games (1.95 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 21W 22D 42L in their last 85 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Burton Albion away?
Wrexham's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.38 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wrexham
0
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 2, Burton Albion have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Burton Albion?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 45%, Burton Albion 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wrexham) and 45% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Wrexham's recent matches and 45% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wrexham's recent games and 45% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Burton Albion 3-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.16 xG and Burton Albion 0.82 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 43% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 26%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 48%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.