Wigan 0-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Sunderland at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wigan have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sunderland away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wigan have won 0, Sunderland 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wigan 64% and Sunderland 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 55% | Sunderland 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.98 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.129 / defence 1.045 | Sunderland attack 0.937 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.588 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Wigan games / 34 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 55% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 22%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Sunderland 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 80% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 55% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Wigan 1.98 / Sunderland 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.129 / def 1.045 | Sunderland attack 0.937 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Wigan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sunderland xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Sunderland kick off?
Wigan vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Sunderland?
Wigan 0 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Wigan vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Sunderland part of?
Wigan vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 55% chance of winning, Sunderland a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Wigan and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Wigan and Sunderland in?
Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Sunderland (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wigan's attack at 1.13x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.37
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Wigan xG
Total xG
3.18
1.20
Sunderland xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
3%
32.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Wigan and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Wigan and 1.20 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 20W 6D 5L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 14W 8D 9L from 31 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sunderland.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wigan have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.74 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 20W 6D 5L in their last 31 games (2.13 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 14W 8D 9L in their last 31 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Sunderland away?
Wigan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 2.00 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Wigan or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sunderland in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Sunderland runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sunderland go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wigan's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wigan
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 0, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2022, when Wigan 1-4 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wigan at 67%, Sunderland at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Wigan and 73% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 7% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wigan's games and 67% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Wigan's matches and 73% of Sunderland's.
Do Wigan and Sunderland tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Wigan 0-3 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.98 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wigan fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 1.59, drawn from 31/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 55% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 22%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 55%, Sunderland 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Sunderland winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.