Morecambe 1-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Morecambe and Ipswich meet at Mazuma Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Morecambe's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Morecambe at Mazuma Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Morecambe, 0 for Ipswich and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Morecambe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 61% versus Ipswich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 58% | Ipswich 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.05 xG and Ipswich 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 1.005 / defence 1.447 | Ipswich attack 0.854 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Data: 33 Morecambe games / 34 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 26% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 47%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 2.13. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Morecambe 70% | Ipswich 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 26% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Morecambe 1.05 / Ipswich 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 1.005 / def 1.447 | Ipswich attack 0.854 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ipswich xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Ipswich kick off?
Morecambe vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Ipswich?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Morecambe vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Ipswich part of?
Morecambe vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 26% chance of winning, Ipswich a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Morecambe and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Morecambe 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are Morecambe and Ipswich in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (1.00) and Ipswich's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.85x) against Morecambe's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.68
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.57
1.51
Ipswich xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.73
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.51 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Morecambe have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 7W 9D 17L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 14W 9D 10L from 33 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Morecambe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 6W 3D 8L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Morecambe are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.52 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Morecambe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ipswich in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 7W 9D 17L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Ipswich away?
Morecambe's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.24 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Morecambe or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Morecambe have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ipswich in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 4-0 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Morecambe
2
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Ipswich have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2023, when Ipswich 4-0 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 59%, Ipswich 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Morecambe) and 47% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 35%; Ipswich in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Morecambe's recent matches and 41% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Morecambe vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Morecambe's recent games and 47% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Ipswich tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Morecambe and Ipswich drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.05 xG and Ipswich 1.51 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Ipswich attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 26% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 47%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 58%, Ipswich 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.