Sunderland 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sunderland, 1.20 for Burton Albion — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 58% versus Burton Albion 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 67% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.91 xG and Burton Albion 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.223 / defence 1.008 | Burton Albion attack 0.750 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.251. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Sunderland games / 33 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Burton Albion 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 50% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Sunderland 1.91 / Burton Albion 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.223 / def 1.008 | Burton Albion attack 0.750 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Burton Albion xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Burton Albion kick off?
Sunderland vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Burton Albion?
Sunderland 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Sunderland vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Burton Albion part of?
Sunderland vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 60% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sunderland and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Burton Albion in?
Sunderland (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.75x) against Sunderland's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.49
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.86
0.94
Burton Albion xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
37.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 33 games, going 16W 7D 10L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (12W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Sunderland against 1.30 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 11W 1D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 16W 7D 10L in their last 33 games (1.67 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Burton Albion away?
Sunderland's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.12 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Sunderland 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 50%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sunderland) and 50% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sunderland's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sunderland's matches and 50% of Burton Albion's.
Do Sunderland and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.91 xG and Burton Albion 0.94 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sunderland fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Burton Albion attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 60% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 18%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 67%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.67 PPG, Burton Albion 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.