Wigan 0-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Port Vale meet at DW Stadium in League One (matchday 43). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Wigan's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Wigan's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wigan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Wigan, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Wigan 2–3 Port Vale — a Port Vale win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Port Vale 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 41% | Port Vale 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.45 xG and Port Vale 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.897 / defence 0.836 | Port Vale attack 0.645 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.180. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Wigan's last 41 games and Port Vale's last 86.
Result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 16%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.76 | Draw 3.71 | Port Vale 6.14. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wigan's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 40% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 43 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Wigan 1.45 / Port Vale 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.897 / def 0.836 | Port Vale attack 0.645 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Wigan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Port Vale xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Port Vale kick off?
Wigan vs Port Vale kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Port Vale?
Wigan 0 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Wigan vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Port Vale part of?
Wigan vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 57% chance of winning, Port Vale a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Wigan and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Wigan vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wigan's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.65x) against Wigan's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 41 games and Port Vale's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.71
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.08
0.64
Port Vale xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
4%
26.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Wigan and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Wigan and 0.64 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 86 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 27W 22D 37L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 23W 19D 44L from 86 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Wigan against 1.02 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 43 home games (17W 9D 17L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 9W 11D 23L from their last 43 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 27W 22D 37L in their last 86 games (1.20 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 23W 19D 44L in their last 86 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Port Vale away?
Wigan's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.40 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Wigan and Port Vale, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wigan
2
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Port Vale?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 1, Port Vale have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Port Vale 0-0 Wigan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 49%, Port Vale 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Wigan) and 54% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Port Vale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Wigan's recent matches and 46% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Wigan's recent games and 54% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Wigan's recent matches and 63% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wigan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Wigan and Port Vale drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.45 xG and Port Vale 0.64 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wigan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Port Vale attack 0.65 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 57% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 16%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 41%, Port Vale 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Port Vale's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.20 PPG, Port Vale 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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