Cambridge United 3-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 39%, yet in-form Wigan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambridge United vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 42 as Cambridge United welcome Wigan to Cledara Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cambridge United at Cledara Abbey Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Wigan — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Wigan's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cambridge United's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambridge United, 1 for Wigan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Wigan in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 41% versus Wigan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 44% | Wigan 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.24 xG and Wigan 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.719 / defence 0.980 | Wigan attack 0.948 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.187. Cambridge United's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wigan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Cambridge United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 85 Cambridge United games / 40 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 39% | Draw 28% | Wigan 33%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Wigan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambridge United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wigan (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 40% | Wigan 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 39% | Draw 28% | Wigan 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cambridge United 1.24 / Wigan 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.719 / def 0.980 | Wigan attack 0.948 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Wigan xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Wigan kick off?
Cambridge United vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Cambridge United 3 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Cambridge United vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Wigan part of?
Cambridge United vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 39% chance of winning, Wigan a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cambridge United and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Wigan?
Record (3 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 1 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Cambridge United and Wigan in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.72) and Wigan's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.57
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.34
1.10
Wigan xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.10 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 24W 16D 45L from 85 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 36L across 85 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.04 PPG, Wigan on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 16W 9D 17L from 42 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 10W 13D 19L across 42 trips, a 1.02 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Wigan in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 24W 16D 45L in their last 85 games (1.04 PPG), while Wigan have gone 27W 22D 36L in their last 85 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Wigan away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.36 PPG; Wigan away: 1.02 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambridge United's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
1
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Wigan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Wigan 1-0 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Wigan?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 40%, Wigan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cambridge United) and 43% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 64% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cambridge United's recent games and 43% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Wigan tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Wigan in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Wigan 3-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.24 xG and Wigan 1.10 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Wigan attack 0.95 / defence 1.32, drawn from 85/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 39% | Draw 28% | Wigan 33%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 44%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.04 PPG, Wigan 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.98 average — above their attacking norm. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.