Northampton 2-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Carlisle in League One (matchday 43). Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Northampton's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Northampton's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Northampton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Carlisle have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Carlisle have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Northampton's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Northampton, 1 for Carlisle and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Northampton 2–2 Carlisle — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Carlisle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 48% | Carlisle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.58 xG and Carlisle 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.917 / defence 0.910 | Carlisle attack 0.906 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.180. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Northampton's projected output up. Data: built from Northampton's last 42 games and Carlisle's last 41.
Result probabilities: Northampton 52% | Draw 25% | Carlisle 23%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.94 | Draw 3.95 | Carlisle 4.32. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Northampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, matchday 43 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 52% | Draw 25% | Carlisle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Northampton 1.58 / Carlisle 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.917 / def 0.910 | Carlisle attack 0.906 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Northampton (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Carlisle xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Carlisle kick off?
Northampton vs Carlisle kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Carlisle?
Northampton 2 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Northampton vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Carlisle part of?
Northampton vs Carlisle is a League One fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 52% chance of winning, Carlisle a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Northampton vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.92) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.91x) against Northampton's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 42 games and Carlisle's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.95
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.56
0.97
Carlisle xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Northampton and 0.97 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 88 games, going 39W 22D 27L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Carlisle sit at 1.17 PPG from 88 outings (26W 25D 37L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Carlisle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 21W 11D 11L across their last 43 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Carlisle have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 43 away games (12W 10D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.22 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 39W 22D 27L in their last 88 games (1.58 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 26W 25D 37L in their last 88 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Carlisle away?
Northampton's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.72 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Northampton and Carlisle, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Northampton won Northampton 3-0 Carlisle on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
2
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Carlisle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Carlisle have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Northampton 2-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Carlisle?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 51%, Carlisle 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Northampton) and 46% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Carlisle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Northampton's recent matches and 51% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Northampton's recent games and 46% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Northampton's recent matches and 70% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Carlisle 2-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.58 xG and Carlisle 0.97 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carlisle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Carlisle attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 52% | Draw 25% | Carlisle 23%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 48%, Carlisle 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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