Wigan 0-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wigan (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Wigan face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Brick Community Stadium plays host to Wigan versus AFC Wimbledon in League One (matchday 45). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Wigan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Wigan have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
AFC Wimbledon away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Wigan, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against AFC Wimbledon — AFC Wimbledon have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Wigan 2–1 AFC Wimbledon — a Wigan win.
The head-to-head data gives Wigan an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Wigan — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 42% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 33% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.878 / defence 0.734 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.807 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.165. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Wigan have a tight defence (rating 0.734), which is pulling AFC Wimbledon's projected output down. Data: built from Wigan's last 90 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 44.
Result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.75 | Draw 3.87 | AFC Wimbledon 5.93. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 20% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Wigan 1.52 / AFC Wimbledon 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.878 / def 0.734 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.807 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Wigan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan 0 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 57% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wigan and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wigan's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.81x) against Wigan's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 90 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.87
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.21
0.69
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Wigan and 0.69 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 90 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 27W 31D 32L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 35W 21D 34L from 90 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Wigan against 1.40 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 44 home games (18W 11D 15L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 13W 12D 19L from their last 44 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 27W 31D 32L in their last 90 games (1.24 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 21D 34L in their last 90 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Wigan's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.48 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Wigan or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
AFC Wimbledon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Wigan
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 32%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Wigan) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 36% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Wigan's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Wigan's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Wigan's recent matches and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Wigan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Wigan 0-1 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wigan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 33%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.24 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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