Sunderland 3-2 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Shrewsbury meet at Stadium of Light in League One, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadium of Light — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sunderland 0W, Shrewsbury 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Shrewsbury 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 61% | Shrewsbury 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.13 xG and Shrewsbury 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.152 / defence 0.978 | Shrewsbury attack 0.697 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.149. Data: 41 Sunderland games / 42 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Shrewsbury 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 60% | Shrewsbury 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 42% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Sunderland 1.13 / Shrewsbury 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.152 / def 0.978 | Shrewsbury attack 0.697 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Shrewsbury xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Sunderland vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Shrewsbury?
Sunderland 3 - 2 Shrewsbury.
Where is Sunderland vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Shrewsbury part of?
Sunderland vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 42% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sunderland and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Shrewsbury in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.15) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.70x) against Sunderland's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.93
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sunderland xG
Total xG
1.92
0.78
Shrewsbury xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.78 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 41 games, going 21W 10D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 1.20 PPG from 41 outings (12W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.02 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 41 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Shrewsbury away?
Sunderland's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.20 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Shrewsbury?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Sunderland 3-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Shrewsbury?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 50%, Shrewsbury 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sunderland) and 30% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 35%; Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sunderland's recent matches and 35% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sunderland's recent games and 30% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Shrewsbury 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Shrewsbury 3-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.13 xG and Shrewsbury 0.78 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Shrewsbury attack 0.70 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 42% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 61%, Shrewsbury 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.