Accrington ST 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Accrington ST. A 0.50 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Burton Albion in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 55% versus Burton Albion 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 57% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 2.46 xG and Burton Albion 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.336 / defence 1.448 | Burton Albion attack 0.725 / defence 1.676. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.149. Accrington ST carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.676 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Accrington ST games / 42 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Accrington ST (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 80% | Burton Albion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Accrington ST 2.46 / Burton Albion 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.336 / def 1.448 | Burton Albion attack 0.725 / def 1.676 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Burton Albion xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Burton Albion kick off?
Accrington ST vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion part of?
Accrington ST vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 64% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Accrington ST and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Burton Albion in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.34x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.68x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.72x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.05
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.67
1.21
Burton Albion xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
9%
11.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
1%
72.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.21 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 9D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.17 PPG from 42 outings (13W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.17 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Burton Albion away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.81 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 4-0 on 23 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Burton Albion 0-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 71%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Accrington ST) and 52% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Accrington ST's games and 52% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Accrington ST's matches and 52% of Burton Albion's.
Do Accrington ST and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Accrington ST and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 2.46 xG and Burton Albion 1.21 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.34 / defence 1.45 against Burton Albion attack 0.72 / defence 1.68, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 57%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.29 PPG, Burton Albion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.