Crewe 3-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Mornflake Stadium to face Crewe in League One, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crewe (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Mornflake Stadium, Crewe have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.30 PPG for Crewe against 0.40 for AFC Wimbledon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 50% versus AFC Wimbledon 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 43% | AFC Wimbledon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.05 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.664 / defence 1.630 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.676 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.149. Crewe's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Crewe games / 42 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 29% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 40%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | AFC Wimbledon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 50% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 29% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Crewe 1.05 / AFC Wimbledon 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.664 / def 1.630 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.676 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AFC Wimbledon xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Crewe 3 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 29% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crewe and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in?
Crewe (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.66x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.68x) against Crewe's defence (1.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
29%
3.44
31%
3.20
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.31
1.26
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Crewe and 1.26 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 6W 7D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 6W 17D 19L from 42 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Crewe against 0.83 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crewe have posted 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 4D 13L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 6W 7D 29L in their last 42 games (0.60 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 17D 19L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Crewe's home record (0.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 0.76 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crewe
5
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 48%, AFC Wimbledon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Crewe) and 57% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 38% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Crewe's recent matches and 48% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Crewe's recent games and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.05 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.26 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.66 / defence 1.63 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.68 / defence 1.43, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 29% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 40%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 43%, AFC Wimbledon 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 0.60 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.