Ipswich 0-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ipswich host Cheltenham at Portman Road in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Ipswich have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 1 for Cheltenham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Cheltenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cheltenham trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 50% versus Cheltenham 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 53% | Cheltenham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.98 xG and Cheltenham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.096 / defence 0.959 | Cheltenham attack 1.089 / defence 1.615. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.251. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.615 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Ipswich games / 32 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 53% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 25%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Cheltenham 4.00. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Cheltenham 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 53% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Ipswich 1.98 / Cheltenham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.096 / def 0.959 | Cheltenham attack 1.089 / def 1.615 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cheltenham xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Cheltenham kick off?
Ipswich vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Cheltenham?
Ipswich 0 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Ipswich vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Cheltenham part of?
Ipswich vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 53% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ipswich and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Cheltenham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.10) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.51
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.29
1.31
Cheltenham xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
3%
29.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.31 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 14W 8D 10L from 32 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 10L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.56 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 2W 7D 6L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.34 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham in 66%.
Last 32 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 games (1.56 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 9W 13D 10L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Cheltenham away?
Ipswich's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.93 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ipswich's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ipswich
3
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Cheltenham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Cheltenham 1-1 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ipswich at 60%, Cheltenham at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ipswich) and 53% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ipswich's games and 73% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ipswich's matches and 53% of Cheltenham's.
Do Ipswich and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ipswich's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and Cheltenham finished level at 0-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.98 xG and Cheltenham 1.31 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ipswich fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Cheltenham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Cheltenham attack 1.09 / defence 1.61, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 53% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 25%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 53%, Cheltenham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cheltenham's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.56 PPG, Cheltenham 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.