Stockport County 4-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stockport County — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wigan stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stockport County's games and 70% of Wigan's (from Stockport County's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 1, Wigan 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Stockport County 1–1 Wigan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Wigan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 46% | Wigan 31%). Note also that Wigan surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.976 / defence 1.037 | Wigan attack 1.007 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.128. Wigan's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 77 games and Wigan's last 77.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.97 | Draw 4.24 | Wigan 3.88. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 60% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Stockport County 1.75 / Wigan 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.976 / def 1.037 | Wigan attack 1.007 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Stockport County 4 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 51% chance of winning, Wigan a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 77 games and Wigan's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.24
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.92
1.18
Wigan xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.18 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 77 games, going 38W 22D 17L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.17 PPG from 77 outings (21W 27D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 23W 9D 7L across their last 39 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 39 away games (8W 17D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Stockport County (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Stockport County vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 38W 22D 17L in their last 77 games (1.77 PPG), while Wigan have gone 21W 27D 29L in their last 77 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Wigan away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wigan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 3, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 59%, Wigan 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stockport County) and 33% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wigan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Wigan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Stockport County's games and 51% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stockport County and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stockport County's recent games and 33% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Stockport County's recent matches and 64% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Wigan 4-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wigan outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Wigan 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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