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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Wigan 4-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wigan outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Wigan 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Wigan's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights