🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Stevenage 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stevenage's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.75 PPG, Stevenage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights