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Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.02 xG and Port Vale 0.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Port Vale's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights