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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Peterborough 3-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.89 xG and Peterborough 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Peterborough's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights