Stockport County 2-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Northampton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Stockport County host Northampton at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 38). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Northampton — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Northampton away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 1, Northampton 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Stockport County 0–0 Northampton — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Northampton in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Northampton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | Northampton 45%). Note also that Northampton surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Northampton 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.117 / defence 1.067 | Northampton attack 0.661 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Northampton's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Stockport County's last 81 games and Northampton's last 83.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.33 | Northampton 5.82. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Northampton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 70% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 40% (last 10 away games).

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