Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Mansfield Town travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bradford have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bradford at Valley Parade this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Valley Parade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bradford are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (81 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town trading profile (81 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 53% versus Mansfield Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 49% | Mansfield Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.07 xG and Mansfield Town 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.914 / defence 0.731 | Mansfield Town attack 0.781 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Bradford's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Bradford games / 81 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Mansfield Town 4.35. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Mansfield Town's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 30% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Bradford 1.07 / Mansfield Town 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.914 / def 0.731 | Mansfield Town attack 0.781 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Bradford (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Mansfield Town xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Bradford 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Bradford vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Mansfield Town part of?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 45% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Bradford and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Record (7 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.91x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
45%
2.23
33%
3.07
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.74
0.67
Mansfield Town xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bradford and 0.67 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 81 games, going 40W 18D 23L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.22 PPG from 81 outings (26W 21D 34L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 30W 5D 4L across 39 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.13 points per game from 39 outings (11W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 40W 18D 23L in their last 81 games (1.70 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 26W 21D 34L in their last 81 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Mansfield Town away?
Bradford's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.44 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Bradford or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 49%, Mansfield Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Bradford) and 54% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bradford's recent matches and 59% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Bradford's recent games and 54% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 38, as Bradford and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.07 xG and Mansfield Town 0.67 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Mansfield Town attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Mansfield Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.