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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Northampton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Northampton 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.77 xG and Northampton 0.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Northampton attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 81/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, Northampton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Northampton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights