🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Stockport County at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Northampton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Stockport County host Northampton at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Northampton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Northampton away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Northampton and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Northampton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Northampton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | Northampton 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Northampton 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.117 / defence 1.067 | Northampton attack 0.661 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Data: 81 Stockport County games / 83 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 23% | Northampton 17%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Northampton 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 70% | Northampton 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights