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Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.09 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 83/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, AFC Wimbledon 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.75 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights