Stockport County 3-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face AFC Wimbledon.

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Fixture Analysis

Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 40). Kick-off is Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

AFC Wimbledon — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

AFC Wimbledon's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.50 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Stockport County's games and 60% of AFC Wimbledon's (from Stockport County's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 3, AFC Wimbledon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Stockport County 1–0 AFC Wimbledon — a Stockport County win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | AFC Wimbledon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.09 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.107 / defence 1.083 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.005 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.151. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 83 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 38.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.77 | Draw 4.78 | AFC Wimbledon 4.46. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.09 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 80% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 60% (last 10 away games).

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