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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.65 against Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 45% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 27%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.43 PPG, Stockport County 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights