Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Port Vale to Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 0.90 PPG, Port Vale 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Stevenage have won 1, Port Vale 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Stevenage 2–1 Port Vale — a Stevenage win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Port Vale 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 35% | Port Vale 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.31 xG and Port Vale 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.780 / defence 0.693 | Port Vale attack 0.659 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.53. Stevenage have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling Port Vale's projected output down. Data: built from Stevenage's last 76 games and Port Vale's last 28.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.78 | Draw 3.44 | Port Vale 6.70. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (56%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Port Vale's lower xG of 0.53 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Stevenage 1.31 / Port Vale 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.780 / def 0.693 | Port Vale attack 0.659 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Port Vale xG
30%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Port Vale kick off?
Stevenage vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Stevenage vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Port Vale part of?
Stevenage vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 56% chance of winning, Port Vale a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Stevenage and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Stevenage vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.78x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 76 games and Port Vale's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.4%), 2-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.44
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.83
0.53
Port Vale xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
4%
24.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.9 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.53 for Port Vale, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 26W 21D 27L from 74 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 26L across 74 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.34 PPG, Port Vale on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 15W 11D 10L from their last 36 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across their last 36 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 26W 21D 27L in their last 74 games (1.34 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 27W 21D 26L in their last 74 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Port Vale away?
Stevenage's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.56 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Stevenage have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Stevenage's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 2, Port Vale have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 42% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Port Vale in 31%; Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Port Vale 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Port Vale 2-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.31 xG and Port Vale 0.53 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.69 against Port Vale attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 76/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Port Vale 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.34 PPG, Port Vale 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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