🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Stevenage and Bolton drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.17 xG and Bolton 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Bolton attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 42% | Draw 30% | Bolton 28%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Bolton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (70 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.34 PPG, Bolton 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights