Shrewsbury 2-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gillingham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 5 as Shrewsbury welcome Gillingham to Montgomery Waters Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 League One fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gillingham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Gillingham's 1.25 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Shrewsbury's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Gillingham trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 0% versus Gillingham 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shrewsbury 25% | Gillingham 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.69 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.650 / defence 1.449 | Gillingham attack 0.723 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 0.976. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Shrewsbury games / 4 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 43%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Gillingham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gillingham as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gillingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 0% | Gillingham 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Shrewsbury 0.69 / Gillingham 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.650 / def 1.449 | Gillingham attack 0.723 / def 1.104 | league avg home 0.961 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gillingham xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Gillingham kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
Shrewsbury 2 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Gillingham part of?
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 24% chance of winning, Gillingham a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Shrewsbury and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Gillingham in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-L. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
24%
4.13
33%
3.01
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.71
1.02
Gillingham xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 18.4 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.02 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Gillingham are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shrewsbury have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gillingham in 75%.
Last 4 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Gillingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Gillingham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Gillingham 1-0 Shrewsbury.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 0%, Gillingham 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Shrewsbury and 25% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 75% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 25% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Gillingham tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Gillingham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Gillingham 2-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.69 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shrewsbury beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.65 / defence 1.45 against Gillingham attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 43%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 25%, Gillingham 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gillingham arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shrewsbury scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gillingham shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.